Let the (qualification) Games begin

It’s crunch time — the final stretch of competitions before 2022 Olympic teams are named. According to the criteria set by the IOC and FIS, only races from July 1, 2019 through January 16 will be considered for Olympic qualification. For the women, that leaves two slaloms, one GS, one super G, and one downhill (through Zauchensee). For the men, it’s two slaloms, two downhills, one GS, and one super G (through Wengen). The qualification period closes before the marquee speed events for women and men, at Cortina and Kitzbühel respectively. The cancellation of the men’s slalom in Zagreb further reduced the shots on goal for tech skiers. 

This is always a stressful time for athletes still looking to qualify for the opportunity to represent their countries at the Olympics. There’s not only the pressure of competition but the added drama of lifetime expectations and extra media attention. Then, there’s the controversy surrounding each country’s objective and discretionary selections. 

This year, those domestic dramas are taking a back seat as nations cope with Olympic selection quotas — created by the FIS and the IOC — that restrict both the total number of athletes and the composition of each team. As of now, for the U.S. Alpine team, that means 15 athletes — nine women and six men — will be making the trip to Beijing. As shown on this table from the FIS, only Switzerland has so far earned the maximum team roster quota of 22. 

The difference in team size comes from two things: first, a total reduction in athletes, from 320 in PyeongChang to 306 in Beijing, and second, a mandated gender equity. A maximum of 153 men and 153 women can compete in Beijing. Each team can have a maximum of 11 athletes per gender, down from 14 in previous Olympics. 

How do the numbers work?

The complete document on Alpine Skiing lays it out in detail. Kudos to Gavin Kentch for taking this on in detail for Nordic skiing on Faster Skier. Here is the Alpine Lite version of that analysis. 

First, it wouldn’t be an Olympic Winter Games (or OWG) without a whole lot of acronyms, starting with the one for National Organizing Committees, NOCs. In PyeongChang, 188 men and 134 women from 80 countries competed. Of those, 26 NOCs did not have any women competitors. For Beijing, there are 84 NOCs with at least one athlete who qualifies for either the A (sub-80 FIS points in speed, sub-160 in tech) or B (sub-160 in tech) standards. Of those, 22 NOCs have no women that meet A or B standards. 

First, each NOC gets one basic quota spot per gender, just for showing up and being in the game (and meeting the A or B standards). Then, each nation with athletes ranked in the top 30 of the WCSL in each event gets two more spots per gender. From there, we move to the Olympic Quota Allocation List (aka D.3 in official discussions). Attn: The following section is for ski racing nerds only (you know who you are). And for this, fellow nerds, I refer here to the official document:

The Olympic Quota Allocation List is a global list of all male and female athletes, from the top 500 of the Olympic FIS points List in their best two (2) events from Downhill, Super-G, Alpine Combined, Giant Slalom, Slalom during the Olympic Qualification period from 1 July 2019 to 16 January 2022. The allocation will be made by assigning one (1) quota place per athlete, from the top of the Olympic Quota Allocation List downwards until the maximum quota of 153 is reached.
Once a NOC has achieved the maximum total number of 11 places, its remaining athletes will no longer be counted and the next eligible NOC on the Olympic Quota Allocation List will be allocated a place. If there is a tie for the final allocated quota place(s), the athlete with the highest ranking on the Olympic FIS points will be ranked ahead. 

If you’re into the numbers, check out this table.

Why is it so tough for men?

Some form of the Olympic selection quota system has been in place and has evolved since at least the 70s. The big difference this year is that the additional quota spots allocated from D.3 are gender-specific. Previously, NOCs could use those earned spots for either men or women, as long as their team size did not exceed the max per gender (previously 14, now 11).

While Switzerland may have the max team size, even they are not happy (as reported in this article featuring head Swiss men’s coach Tom Stauffer) because the ranking system favors two-event skiers, and many of their strongest skiers excel in one event. There are fewer one-event specialists among women, so they rank higher on the Olympic Quota Allocation List. Also, the 22 NOCs without eligible female athletes are from countries that do not field World Cup-level skiers, so there are relatively more spots open to World Cup-level women than to men.

Reallocation to the rescue

For the U.S., and other countries who are currently under the max quota, more spots will become available through reallocation, which is essentially a draft, based on the Alpine Skiing Quotas List (scroll to the bottom for next available nations) that comes into play after NOCs confirm or decline their spots on Jan. 18. The great reshuffling — whereby spots are made available and then confirmed by the NOCs — is complete by Jan. 20, and the final sport entry deadline is Jan. 24. 

How it plays for Team USA

To put the potential 15-person American team quota in context, in PyeongChang 2018 Team USA named 24 alpine skiers — 11 women, 13 men (two of those were late additions, replacing athletes injured before the Games started). In the past 30 years, Team USA’s alpine skiing rosters have ranged from 18 to 24, with the balance between men and women toggling back and forth within an athlete or two. This year’s team, as currently configured, would be the smallest since 1984, when the U.S. Ski Team chose to not fill the quota, only bringing 11 total athletes, six women and five men. 

Regardless of how many spots Team USA garners through reallocation, USST Alpine Director Jesse Hunt plans to fill the Olympic team. Compared to the FIS and IOC selection process, USSS Olympic selection criteria is uncomplicated, relying entirely on World Cup performance for objective criteria. Up to four athletes can compete in each discipline, and Team Parallel athletes will be chosen from athletes who have already qualified for an individual event. 

Athletes qualify by, in order, top-three, top-five and top-10 World Cup performances. After that, selection shifts to total Word Cup points, first by individual event and then overall.

As Hunt explains, “Any athlete named beyond those that have scored World Cup points will be named based on discretion.” Discretionary picks are based on the following three priorities, as stated in the criteria:

1. Medal Capable Athlete: A medal capable athlete is one who has had a World Cup podium finish in the 2020-21 season, or a Top 10 individual World Cup finish in the 2021-22 season prior to January 17, 2022. 
2. Best Predicted Finish: U.S. Ski & Snowboard’s Selection Committee may choose the athlete or athletes who are most likely to finish with the highest placing in the event based on recent positive trajectory or trend of competition results indicating a potential for athletic success. 
3. Athletes Who Maximize Team Performance: An athlete whose trajectory is such that they may be able to contribute to a medal in a team event. 

Discretion is always where team selection gets sticky, especially when it comes to independent athletes — those not named to the national team who are competing on the World Cup. One positive about the small quota is it leaves little room for discretion, particularly among the men. To date, seven U.S. men and eight women have scored World Cup points (Isabella Wright is currently injured, so her participation will be based on medical clearance. Tommy Ford has not yet been able to compete, and thus score points, but the U.S.’s top-ranked GS skier may be race-ready by selection time.)

The remaining World Cup races are an all-out dash for World Cup points, which highlights the importance of granting elite independent athletes the right to compete in their strongest disciplines at the highest level available to them. On the women’s side, these American athletes include Patricia Mangan in speed events, and Lila Lapanja in slalom. On the men’s side, tech skiers George Steffey, Brian McLaughlin and Alex Leever are all in the mix. 

As noted in the criteria, athletes who wish to appeal to be included on the Olympic team must do so by Jan. 16, and will be informed of the decision by Jan. 18, when the team is officially named.

As Hunt notes, “There is still a lot of racing ahead.” You can be sure it will all be full gas.  

Team USA in previous Olympics:

2018: 24 total, 11 women, 13 men
2014: 20 total, 9 women, 11 men
2010: 22 total, 10 women, 12 men
2006: 19 total, 10 women, 9 men
2002: 22 total, 11 women, 11 men
1998: 22 total, 12 women, 10 men
1994: 22 total, 12 women, 10 men
1992: 22 total, 11 women, 11 men
1988: 18 total, 9 women, 9 men
1984: 11 total, 6 women, 5 men